Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 157.400898 189.985098 230.065446 283.851379 355.494779 4.496718e+02 5.864097e+02
2025-01-12 119.739267 157.661614 210.317278 291.707158 420.192973 6.267870e+02 1.012528e+03
2025-01-19 95.545790 133.020862 189.380973 285.512531 457.712233 7.834310e+02 1.545856e+03
2025-01-26 86.375293 126.514241 191.535476 313.586700 562.562560 1.126407e+03 2.873639e+03
2025-02-02 78.747160 120.179522 191.541872 336.994241 670.853410 1.572897e+03 5.398069e+03
2025-02-09 72.125966 113.891063 189.646842 355.569632 779.934337 2.145347e+03 1.044311e+04
2025-02-16 66.004674 107.191174 185.196941 366.959370 879.371602 2.832149e+03 2.075662e+04
2025-02-23 60.660959 100.910939 180.056316 374.930749 976.233428 3.689295e+03 4.475051e+04
2025-03-02 54.794767 92.717967 169.315449 365.671361 1014.361627 4.368717e+03 8.789374e+04
2025-03-09 49.859602 85.634314 159.622904 356.276087 1048.225376 5.136720e+03 1.925298e+05
2025-03-16 45.315535 78.746772 149.195218 341.953330 1056.300988 5.794952e+03 4.357219e+05
2025-03-23 44.396295 79.024798 154.878833 375.544368 1291.569283 9.291776e+03 1.604263e+07
2025-03-30 41.470789 74.936970 150.065310 377.465890 1396.529542 1.232701e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 39.537574 72.726217 149.442777 393.127274 1595.886464 1.879530e+04 NaN
2025-04-13 36.709524 68.233343 142.373437 384.811491 1655.554918 2.380964e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 36.256198 68.922369 148.689639 426.861130 2102.330598 5.179753e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 35.447655 68.692788 152.554858 462.211716 2588.089637 1.211345e+05 NaN
2025-05-04 34.396096 67.759135 154.313648 490.485738 3098.290748 3.180524e+05 NaN
2025-05-11 33.083390 66.043984 153.532192 507.922550 3566.541939 9.348297e+05 NaN
2025-05-18 31.733058 64.085031 151.697999 520.171225 4033.118526 3.822081e+06 NaN
2025-05-25 29.861703 60.654221 144.886040 505.947582 4132.379051 1.058240e+07 NaN
2025-06-01 28.153113 57.481887 138.442930 491.567494 4214.887387 4.228566e+07 NaN
2025-06-08 26.427542 54.124356 130.992673 469.748651 4148.052454 1.483955e+08 NaN